CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2025-10-12T14:53:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2025-10-12T14:53ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/41710/-1
CME Note: [PRELIMINARY] CME seen to the NE in STEREO A COR2 only and likely not seen in SOHO LASCO and GOES CCOR-1 coronagraphs, possibly since it overlaps with a couple of preceding CMEs, including 2025-10-12T14:23Z CME. Its source could be the C9.6 flare in AR 4246 (N22W10) peaking at 2025-10-12T13:50Z and an associated eruption with dimming to the SE of this Active Region, best seen in STEREO A EUV 195 after 2025-10-12T13:30Z, also seen in GOES SUVI 131, 171, 195, 284, 304 imagery. The CME partially overlaps with the more northern (as seen in STEREO A COR2), 2025-10-12T14:23Z CME, which may be associated with the dimming to the NW of this Active Region after 2025-10-12T13:30Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-10-15T22:18Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 5.8
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: 55.45 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2025-10-13T14:51Z
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